For Pafalafa only::
On a Saturday night in late April 1933, when the ?tailor? knew that the consul and a few of his .. so I'm glad I had the chance to work on this for you.
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Looking at the GFS, it shows huge Plains ridge by midweek, and likely some really warm temperatures with it. But right behind that thing is a strong, deep 500mb trough digging all the way to Baja California. Now this is a ways out, but I think it bears watching. Time for some big Autumn storms!
Maybe - but I guarantee it won't be the last time that someone posts a one hundred and freaking eighty hour map and puts any value in it... At least use ensembles, or a model with skill at that range (ECMWF) :)
Interesting tid-bit from the San Diego NWS (http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/display_product.php?sid=SGX&pil=SPS):
"A STRONG STORM FOR SEPTEMBER MAY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WEATHER VERY RARELY SEEN IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN SEPTEMBER. THIS COULD BE THE STRONGEST MID LATITUDE SEPTEMBER STORM FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN AROUND 20 YEARS. SEPTEMBER STORMS WITH SOME SIMILARITY TO THIS STORM OCCURRED IN 1986 AND IN 1963...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR SEPTEMBER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN FOR SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TORNADOES OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS."
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=024&STATIONID=koga
Yikes, the Nebraska panhandle area has me scared for tomorrow. Tomorrow then Thursday would make 4 chases in a row lol. Wishing I didn't waste 400 miles on yesterday.
LOL now there's a fun HODO (http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=027&STATIONID=koga): (03z Ogallala)
It is to early to tell and any forecast now would sound like wishcasting but if it looks like we will have a good chance for severe weather closer to the time frame how many people here would be out chasing and how many people actually chase in the fall? I know many plan chase vacations for spring and do not always have the money for several chases so I am curious how many people do chase in the fall? Over 1000 Comments, please!::
Oops! Not 207, silly, only 107. 207 is next week's score. .. There is no chance of exceeding 200 comments. H&K Kemlo
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Remember, once it's within 5 days or so you need to start a forecast thread in the Target Area for the event.
A couple of bloggers at Accuweather.com (http://www.accuweather.com) have posted entries regarding this upcoming system:
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?traveler=0&blog=clark&date=2007-09-14_21:32&month=9
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=yeager
Interestingly, the GFS is showing a cut-off low while the newly in-range WRF is not.
GFS 84hr @ 500mb:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs084hr_500_wnd.gif
WRF 84hr @ 500mb:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta84hr_500_wnd.gif
I have been looking for a while myself.. Looks to hold some promise, with southerly flow finally setting up.
Anything is welcome here since have had nothing but see texts and no organized wording lately it seems.. And we are talking about frost this weekend!
I too have been watching the Long Range Solutions for quite some time, and while obvious changes have occurred in both timing strength and location, all model solutions have been hinting at a significant trough for quite some time. We are begining to approach the time where I feel some faith can be put into general location and strength of the troughs, considering We are now approaching less then 100 hrs from the initial trough reaching the W Coast, although from there timing really is up in the air. I am always optimistic though and will look at what ever is good in the models until I am forced to stop ignoring the negatives. Any way you put it, it very much appears as though the plains will experience strong SW flow and good southerly LL flow for an extended period of time, hopefully that trough forecast to push through Monday/Tuesday will not push a cold front to far south and scour away parameters before the primary trough later in the week current indications are it lifts back N as a WF but that is getting quite deatiled so far out. Heres to a week of wait and see!! Mysterious Diet Pill SupraSvelte::
Hopefully I will get it within the next week. .. I recieved in the mail to send the pills back, but I am not taking my chances on getting my money back.
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Looking for live-in medical/psychiatric ::
A week - not hours or days - would be acceptable for an answer. . frequent relapses and, unfortunately, severe disability and death.
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Sure would like to see previous runs of the European verify as it's had it working through the Dakotas strong and with a really nice negative tilt; however as consistent as its been, the GFS has been similarly consistent in cutting it off over the far SW CA. Finally it appears the two may be working towards a similar solution as per latest runs both have it cut off over CA on Friday, before they including the GFS have it rapidly ejecting North East on Sunday. Both now bring it through quite quick and pretty far North. Its worth noting that while its only forecasting through Friday the NAM is in pretty good agreement with the European and the GFS as well through that time with it cut off over CA.
From the WGN Weather Blog (http://blogs.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/), the amplitude of this upcoming system is being influenced by the remenants of Typhoon Fitow:
Interesting.... if you'll all recall last year's Sept 16th tornadoes in SD and MN where influenced by the remnants of Typhoon Ioke. Now Ioke was a cat 5 at one point in it's life whereas Fitow only reached cat 2 but still it bears watching.
Anyone have any thoughts to what may be setting up over the Plains States next Monday or Tuesday???
I know its rather far out and iffy, but atleast it appears to be a bit of a change and warm temps and humidity building in front of a trough and system digging into the Western States.
Those would most likely be "California Tornadoes": F0 or "EF-1" (under 65 mph). Think weak waterspout coming ashore. But it would be interesting to see some real weather this early in the season.
Maybe - but I guarantee it won't be the last time that someone posts a one hundred and freaking eighty hour map and puts any value in it... At least use ensembles, or a model with skill at that range (ECMWF) :)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_384m.gif
Can't wait to see how that one unfolds.
Yeah I have been noticing the GFS has been pointing to that wave for quite some time, now that the NAM is in Range it really points towards a possible chase, 50kt H5 wave with a 50kt LLJ, DP's forecast to climb back up towards 70 wrapping all the way N of the 995mb low, it points at it pulling up a decent dry punch as well, definitly has sparked my interest.
How's this Rob?
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/targ/hgtgif/z250ensmn2007091712_vt84.gif
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/cartes/data/cartes/GZ500/CMC_NCEP/2007091300_192.gif
From the WGN Weather Blog (http://blogs.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/), the amplitude of this upcoming system is being influenced by the remenants of Typhoon Fitow:
http://blogs.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/FEATURE091307THUR.jpg
Looks good for tornadoes tomorrow!
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=024&STATIONID=ksny
http://beta.wxcaster.com/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_BL-6KM_SHEAR_24HR.gif
http://beta.wxcaster.com/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_0-1KM_SRH_24HR.gif
http://beta.wxcaster.com/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_0-3KM_CAPE_24HR.gif
and just for fun......
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_ATMOS_STP-NEW_24HR.gif
Shows initiation at 0z, but this is at 2z.......
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/tcolc_f26.gif
Could this be the first 2nd season system?
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/60h/nam_500_60h.gif
ECMWF has been pretty consistent in taking it through the northern plains on Sunday. I think the nam there is in the process of cutting it off. I'm buying into the ecmwf the most.
Thursday looking interesting in eastern SD now too. Then again knowing how the nam is, I'm sure one can chop 15 knots off that 500 flow, back it a bit and angle the surface boundary more sw-ne...and essentially turn it to crap by then. It's sort of got that written all over it.
"WRF... so hot right now!" -Mugatu
Actually the latest run cuts off the low as the GFS did. BUT, there are a couple of impules that will ride the jet and make for an interesting next two days towards the canadian border. Western ND on Wednesday and Northern MN on Thursday could be interesting if the moisture can rebound behind this cold front.
I've been watching this for awhile and I'm really hoping this one pans out! After last year's Sept 16 chase that went down in my book as my most memorable chase. I am really hoping for an encore performance by the atmosphere. :) Lets keep our fingers crossed.
Interestingly, the GFS is showing a cut-off low while the newly in-range WRF is not.
That 84 hour WRF run is the hottest thing I have seen since June.
It is to early to tell and any forecast now would sound like wishcasting but if it looks like we will have a good chance for severe weather closer to the time frame how many people here would be out chasing and how many people actually chase in the fall? I know many plan chase vacations for spring and do not always have the money for several chases so I am curious how many people do chase in the fall?
If the models still show high confidence in the magnitude and timing of the trough for next week, it wouldn't take much more to entice me to take the drive.
Lincoln, NE is only ten hours from here, and the weather up here has been crap for the last ten days. Throw in the fact that there won't be 85+ temps the whole journey, and a fall chase sounds like a sweet deal.
If this unfolds with promise, I might be looking to hook up with someone more experienced. If anyone's game, by all means drop me a PM.
John Hudson
www.skywatch7.com
How about early next week? Monday looking interesting on the nam. Getting good dewpoints in place may be a challenge.
Certainly looks like things may finally swing into a deep sustained sw flow pattern. Timing is an obvious key to all of this...but it is time to ponder digging out the equipment tucked away 3 months ago. It won't be long before we see some chases out on the Plains. Need to get closer in before becoming too wildly pumped about things. A Sept. 16th event would indeed be nice though Michael - for sure.
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